Sun, Jan 4, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 19 | 114 | 233 |
| EDM | 15 | 114 | 34 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 0:08EDMJordan EberleAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Ference · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:41NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Nick Leddy, John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:33EDMDerek RoyGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:30EDMMatt HendricksENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
- P3 17:47EDMMatt FraserAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Anton Lander · Snap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 19:29NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, John Tavares · Snap, 0.35 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:47EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:01EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:33NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:37NYICasey Cizikas: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:49EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:56EDMNail Yakupov: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:09
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson9:09
xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome8:03
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares11:03
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey16:53
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 0–3
- Boychuk – Leddy12:15
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan13:03
xG 0.78–0.79 (50%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:08
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:09
xG 0.94–0.81 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Roy – Pouliot – Purcell11:00
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Lander – Fraser – Yakupov9:15
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry14:42
xG 1.26–0.46 (73%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Fayne – Klefbom4:57
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Klefbom2:15
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).