Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 19 | 08 | 121 |
| NJD | 313 | 08 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Larsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:49NJDJordin TootooGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Cory Schneider · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 14:39NJDTravis ZajacSHAssists: Patrik Elias, Mark Fraser · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 6:40BUFMikhail GrigorenkoPPAssists: Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:56NJDMichael CammalleriENAssists: Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:48BUFChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:48NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:07NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:38BUFPhil Varone: Holding2 min
- P2 5:09NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29BUFTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Varone – Flynn9:24
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- McCormick – Kaleta – Schaller8:01
xG 0.03–0.19 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons14:37
xG 0.21–0.57 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Grigorenko13:34
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Weber16:54
xG 0.72–0.29 (72%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zadorov17:48
xG 0.23–0.84 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Gorges – Myers16:33
xG 0.04–0.77 (5%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gomez – Henrique14:49
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Elias – Cammalleri – Zajac14:13
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Bernier – Sestito7:02
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Ruutu13:11
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson15:56
xG 0.60–0.10 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill2:42
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Helgeson – Merrill12:20
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).