Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 015 | 117 | 03 | 1 | 142 |
| PHI | 09 | 011 | 113 | 01 | 2 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 6:36OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 8:59PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
- 2. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 6. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 7. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 8. PHI Brayden Schenn stopped
- 9. OTT Erik Karlsson stopped
- 10. PHI Wayne Simmonds scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:53PHIWayne Simmonds: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:25OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
- P1 15:08PHIJakub Voracek: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:33OTTDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:44PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:44OTTColin Greening: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:59PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 16:15OTTJared Cowen: Holding2 min
- P3 3:53PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min
- P3 8:51OTTClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone7:44
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad11:28
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson4:49
xG 0.20–0.12 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau4:38
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Gryba7:26
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson7:28
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cowen – Ceci13:57
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn12:50
xG 0.76–0.69 (52%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl5:51
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier9:30
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare4:46
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Del Zotto11:24
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann13:14
xG 0.58–0.57 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald2:13
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).