Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 416 | 010 | 436 |
| MTL | 16 | 07 | 19 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:07MTLDale WeiseAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 3:17TBLJT BrownAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Brian Boyle · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 10:42TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:16TBLBrett ConnollyGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:38TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P3 5:01MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:53TBLBrett Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:47MTLJiri Sekac: Holding2 min
- P1 6:18MTLP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:04TBLJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:23MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24MTLNathan Beaulieu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:55MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:45TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 19:05MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Drouin5:30
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Brown – Drouin2:31
xG 0.41–0.38 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Connolly4:33
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette11:32
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr6:16
xG 0.31–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stralman – Barberio5:57
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr6:28
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Desharnais – Weise10:12
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:41
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Eller – Bournival – Sekac2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac5:57
xG 0.04–0.28 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Beaulieu15:12
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban14:02
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin10:45
xG 0.06–0.69 (7%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).