Tue, Jan 6, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Dallas Stars 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 26 | 110 | 14 | 420 |
| DAL | 010 | 25 | 011 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21CBJJames WisniewskiAssists: Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 7:26CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:57CBJKevin ConnautonGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 5:28DALAles HemskyAssists: Jamie Oleksiak · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:14DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 17:02CBJMark LetestuAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Sean Collins · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:55DALAntoine Roussel: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:12DALTravis Moen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:16CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P1 13:20CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:04DALErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P2 7:15CBJJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 10:30CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:46CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:46DALTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:27DALCody Eakin: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:44CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:50DALBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Skille – Collins – Wennberg7:42
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Morin3:10
xG 0.06–0.13 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen10:45
xG 0.37–0.59 (38%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:36
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wisniewski – Connauton8:10
xG 0.22–0.23 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef13:48
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard11:44
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie6:54
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin2:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky7:39
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:05
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn8:22
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg11:02
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Daley – Oleksiak9:01
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).