Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 214 | 215 | 441 |
| EDM | 18 | 07 | 18 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Jeff Petry, Anton Lander · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 10:44DETKyle QuinceyAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 18:29DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 15:55EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 19:26DETPavel DatsyukPPGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Henrik Zetterberg · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:57DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:12EDMTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:51DETLuke Glendening: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:58DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:23EDMNikita Nikitin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:02EDMMatt Hendricks: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 18:20EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25DETJohan Franzen: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:31EDMBenoit Pouliot: Spearing double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:31
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Franzen – Tatar – Sheahan10:03
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening6:31
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Weiss – Helm9:54
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:20
xG 0.92–0.17 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet11:41
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser15:06
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser2:53
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer7:33
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Pouliot – Purcell7:46
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:28
xG 0.35–0.67 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Fayne – Klefbom5:07
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz5:41
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Ference – Petry12:24
xG 0.16–0.46 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).