Tue, Jan 6, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 07 | 18 | 223 |
| VAN | 16 | 211 | 03 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38NYIMatt MartinAssists: Travis Hamonic · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:09VANRyan StantonAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 8:01VANNick BoninoAssists: Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 17:36VANLinden VeyGWGAssists: Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 14:33NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:07VANBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:15NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:54VANAlexandre Burrows: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:32VANRyan Stanton: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:59NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:50
xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome9:18
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Okposo – Tavares2:04
xG 0.09–0.07 (58%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Okposo – Grabner – Tavares9:35
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan16:23
xG 0.62–0.21 (74%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:06
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hickey – Donovan15:23
xG 0.45–1.62 (22%)attempts 11–16goals 0–3
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Bonino – Vey7:07
xG 0.94–0.16 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian5:47
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat6:07
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Hansen – Matthias – Kassian2:03
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton11:04
xG 1.39–0.49 (74%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Edler – Tanev16:17
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Weber – Sbisa13:59
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).