Wed, Jan 7, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 14 | 314 | 28 | 626 |
| TOR | 07 | 212 | 014 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:49TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Cody Franson, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:20WSHEric FehrSHAssists: Jay Beagle, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 8:58WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 16:08TORTrevor SmithAssists: Leo Komarov, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.32 xG3–2
- P2 16:50WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: John Carlson, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 11:20WSHEric FehrAssists: John Carlson, Mike Green · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 19:33WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:24TORDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:24WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:10WSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:58TORDavid Booth: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:22WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 9:18TORLeo Komarov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson5:42
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:41
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr10:33
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky10:40
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner13:59
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson19:10
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 19–17goals 3–1
- Green – Hillen12:19
xG 0.32–0.92 (26%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Komarov – Smith4:45
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Panik4:14
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Kessel – Kadri8:27
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak4:24
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly11:36
xG 0.77–0.13 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Franson11:40
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Robidas – Gardiner9:34
xG 0.36–0.16 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).