Thu, Jan 8, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 03 | 04 | 07 | 014 |
| BOS | 118 | 111 | 114 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50BOSMilan LucicPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:31BOSCarl SoderbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 19:48BOSMilan LucicENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.65 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:09NJDMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:01NJDTim Sestito: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:28NJDJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20BOSJordan Caron: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:20NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:43BOSDaniel Paille: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Zubrus
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Zubrus – Cammalleri – Tootoo2:26
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Havlat4:25
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac8:46
xG 0.07–0.22 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Sestito4:51
xG 0.03–0.18 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Larsson18:00
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill4:31
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Fraser14:55
xG 0.21–0.76 (22%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Soderberg – Smith13:00
xG 0.86–0.03 (97%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Lucic10:53
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak11:51
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Caron – Cunningham7:09
xG 0.06–0.08 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug13:23
xG 0.86–0.06 (93%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton14:31
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – McQuaid21:55
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).