Thu, Jan 8, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 2, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 113 | 06 | 226 |
| STL | 312 | 211 | 25 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:06STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 18:27SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:06STLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 0:29SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P2 8:52STLJori LehteraAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 13:20STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, David Backes · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–5
- P3 9:05STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 11:59STLDavid BackesAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.09 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:29SJSJohn Scott: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:26SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 6:15STLDmitrij Jaskin: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:22SJSJohn Scott: Interference2 min
- P3 19:15STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:15STLRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:15SJSJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:15STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:15SJSJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marleau won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Nieto – Hertl6:07
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Karlsson9:38
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Marleau – Wingels – Nieto3:50
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Goodrow – Hertl3:25
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Vlasic15:10
xG 0.67–0.87 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Braun – Dillon15:36
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
- Irwin – Tennyson16:16
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:41
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves9:03
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie11:59
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Stastny – Berglund – Jaskin12:04
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:42
xG 1.03–0.50 (67%)attempts 22–9goals 4–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson16:03
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Jackman – Butler15:38
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).