Thu, Jan 8, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 27 | 07 | 00 | 220 |
| NSH | 18 | 17 | 08 | 11 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:27NSHShea WeberAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 12:51DALJason SpezzaAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 16:47NSHMiikka SalomakiAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P2 19:58DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Jamie Benn, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:17NSHShea WeberGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:21NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 2:59DALAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:42NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:57NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Seguin6:48
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Hemsky3:34
xG 0.19–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Ritchie7:01
xG 0.21–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler3:52
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn15:41
xG 0.38–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Daley – Goligoski2:20
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:29
xG 0.17–0.99 (15%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Jarnkrok – Salomaki9:08
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:40
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arcobello10:03
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Stalberg – Bourque10:50
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:29
xG 1.71–0.79 (69%)attempts 20–19goals 2–2
- Ellis – Ekholm8:25
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Bartley – Jones10:32
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).