Thu, Jan 8, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Florida Panthers 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 215 | 07 | 331 |
| VAN | 111 | 013 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Yannick Weber · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:33FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 7:10FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 16:43FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:29FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:09FLAScottie Upshall: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:24VANZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 12:43VANKevin Bieksa: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:43FLAJussi Jokinen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:58FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:58VANBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58FLAJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:49FLABrian Campbell: Holding2 min
- P3 12:10FLADave Bolland: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:36VANDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:36VANDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Huberdeau – Barkov8:57
xG 1.16–0.22 (84%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall6:29
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad8:59
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland9:13
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad13:43
xG 1.72–0.60 (74%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Olsen8:34
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov13:27
xG 0.40–0.45 (47%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian8:00
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat3:55
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Bonino – Vey3:25
xG 0.06–0.33 (14%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows10:18
xG 0.36–0.82 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton11:38
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Tanev2:19
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stanton – Tanev2:23
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).