Thu, Jan 8, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Rangers 4, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 39 | 09 | 426 |
| LAK | 212 | 06 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:49LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:27NYRDan BoylePPAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 2:31NYRKevin KleinAssists: Kevin Hayes, John Moore · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 2:50NYRLee StempniakAssists: J.T. Miller, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 8:17NYRMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Dan Boyle, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–2
- P3 15:57LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:22LAKMike Richards: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:45LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:56NYRDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:31LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:06NYRMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P3 4:03LAKJarret Stoll: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:44NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P3 19:23NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:49
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast8:25
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:18
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller11:39
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore9:29
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Boyle – McDonagh2:29
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:39
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson9:43
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar2:51
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown7:36
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Richards – Lewis – Clifford5:05
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – McBain9:49
xG 0.82–0.21 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Martinez – Doughty9:22
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty10:35
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).