Fri, Jan 9, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 14 | 08 | 220 |
| TOR | 417 | 06 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15CBJRyan JohansenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:30TORTyler BozakUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:32TORDaniel WinnikAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 16:31TORPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P1 17:23TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 3:43CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: David Savard, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 18:47TORJames van RiemsdykENAssists: Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:15CBJKevin Connauton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:35CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:56CBJMatt Calvert: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08CBJJared Boll: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:31TORDaniel Winnik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:26TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Morin4:58
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Calvert2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Skille – Collins – Wennberg7:37
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson4:53
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:07
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton14:03
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef17:01
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Santorelli – Komarov9:02
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bodie – Booth – Smith4:06
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kadri – Panik11:51
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Winnik – Kessel – Bozak13:29
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Franson13:54
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Robidas – Gardiner12:48
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly17:07
xG 0.33–0.70 (32%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).