Fri, Jan 9, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 6, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 29 | 213 | 635 |
| CGY | 26 | 210 | 114 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42CGYMatt StajanUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:28FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brad Boyes · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:12FLABrad BoyesAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 16:36CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Mark Giordano, Joe Colborne · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 2:27CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Dennis Wideman, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 2:46FLASean BergenheimAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- P2 8:13CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Lance Bouma, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P2 17:05FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- P3 9:29FLABrian CampbellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
- P3 16:06CGYMatt StajanAssists: David Jones, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–5
- P3 16:51FLATomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Dave Bolland, Sean Bergenheim · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:10FLADerek MacKenzie: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:14FLADylan Olsen: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 19:08FLABrian Campbell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:39FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P3 2:40CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52FLAAl Montoya: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:35FLABrad Boyes: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:54FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland9:04
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall8:40
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad12:40
xG 0.80–0.79 (50%)attempts 18–11goals 1–2
- Boyes – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:07
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Gudbranson15:17
xG 1.29–0.30 (81%)attempts 22–11goals 4–1
- Campbell – Ekblad18:03
xG 1.18–0.53 (69%)attempts 25–13goals 2–1
- O'Brien – Olsen9:01
xG 0.17–0.61 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Bouma2:52
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Monahan2:51
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Colborne – Bouma3:26
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 2–1
- Raymond – Byron – Monahan2:06
xG 0.08–0.11 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell15:27
xG 1.01–0.74 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 3–2
- Engelland – Smid10:22
xG 0.13–0.72 (15%)attempts 9–15goals 0–3
- Giordano – Brodie16:06
xG 0.39–1.13 (26%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).