Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 09 | 210 | 327 |
| MIN | 114 | 09 | 014 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01NSHMike FisherAssists: Colin Wilson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:14MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Christian Folin, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 3:48NSHCalle JarnkrokGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–1
- P3 8:47NSHColin WilsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:48NSHAnton Volchenkov: Interference2 min
- P1 14:51NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:51MINRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:48NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:26MINZach Parise: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:46NSHCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:16NSHPekka Rinne: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00MINChristian Folin: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHColin Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:57NSHFilip Forsberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:55NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:55MINMatt Cooke: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:55MINMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:28MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:28NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Stalberg – Bourque7:59
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith4:47
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg7:18
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Cullen – Jokinen – Jarnkrok8:45
xG 0.63–0.64 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones15:32
xG 0.83–0.47 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Bartley8:57
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi19:43
xG 0.30–0.68 (30%)attempts 13–23goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Zucker10:36
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Schroeder – Coyle – Niederreiter7:01
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Cooke – Brodziak – Carter7:08
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Parise – Haula12:28
xG 0.35–0.76 (32%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Folin12:14
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon18:23
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 23–14goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin3:23
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).