Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 112 | 09 | 16 | 237 |
| MTL | 19 | 013 | 05 | 01 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:10MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 18:28PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Simon Despres, Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 3:41PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:52PITChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P1 19:58PITRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P2 7:01MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P2 13:17PITSimon Despres: Holding2 min
- P3 5:53PITDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:16MTLTom Gilbert: Interference2 min
- P3 14:08MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:09MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDownie – Sutter – Rust6:53
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Sill2:16
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Perron12:40
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Malkin – Spaling – Bennett10:55
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Letang14:27
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Despres10:12
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Martin – Bortuzzo14:42
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk9:24
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Bournival – Thomas – Andrighetto6:48
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Desharnais – Weise9:52
xG 0.14–0.20 (40%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Sekac9:29
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban14:20
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu14:43
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Emelin10:21
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 3–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).