Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 116 | 311 | 113 | 540 |
| CBJ | 14 | 08 | 16 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:31NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Nick Leddy, Michael Grabner · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:22CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: David Savard, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:04NYIMatt MartinAssists: Ryan Strome, Thomas Hickey · Deflected, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 13:37NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Thomas Hickey · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 17:31NYIBrian StraitAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 3:33CBJNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Johansen, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–2
- P3 14:54NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey, Brian Strait · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:21NYINikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 9:38NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P2 4:00CBJRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:01CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:57NYIBrian Strait: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:25CBJDavid Savard: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:16CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:16CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54CBJCam Atkinson: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:12NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:12CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson8:16
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome8:27
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares11:49
xG 0.44–0.60 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:37
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 1–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan13:48
xG 0.80–0.23 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Strait – Hickey12:28
xG 1.15–0.74 (61%)attempts 16–18goals 3–1
- Boychuk – Leddy14:05
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Collins – Morin – Wennberg9:35
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp7:59
xG 0.02–0.07 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Johansen11:07
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:10
xG 0.39–0.71 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Prout – Connauton4:19
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski4:22
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Prout9:27
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).