Sat, Jan 10, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 1, Vancouver Canucks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 08 | 09 | 123 |
| VAN | 015 | 013 | 08 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: David Jones, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:27VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:27CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:38VANBrad Richardson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:15VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:15CGYMarkus Granlund: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:44VANLuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Gaudreau9:11
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig6:24
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hudler – Glencross – Monahan11:34
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Colborne – Bouma – Granlund7:21
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wideman – Russell16:57
xG 0.68–0.72 (49%)attempts 17–28goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie21:56
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 16–22goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie2:02
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Dorsett – Horvat8:54
xG 0.73–0.31 (70%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows6:33
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Higgins – Bonino4:38
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata8:17
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev17:54
xG 1.05–0.53 (66%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Tanev2:34
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Corrado10:48
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).