Sat, Jan 10, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Rangers 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 011 | 112 | 332 |
| SJS | 011 | 09 | 111 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 15:13NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–0
- P3 7:14SJSMelker KarlssonPPAssists: James Sheppard, Matt Tennyson · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 19:00NYRRick NashENAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:34NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P2 16:31SJSMatt Tennyson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:23NYRMartin St. Louis: Interference2 min
- P3 5:41NYRDominic Moore: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:58SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheppard won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider11:17
xG 0.95–0.16 (85%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:29
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller8:55
xG 0.71–0.23 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Fast7:17
xG 0.38–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Staal11:00
xG 1.25–0.24 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal6:59
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh12:25
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Desjardins – McGinn – Goodrow9:30
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Karlsson13:29
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Nieto13:02
xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Sheppard – Wingels – Hertl9:08
xG 0.40–1.79 (18%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic18:23
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Hannan – Braun3:36
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hannan – Tennyson8:53
xG 0.26–0.92 (22%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).