Mon, Jan 12, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 15 | 16 | 113 | 324 |
| PHI | 210 | 513 | 02 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Luke Schenn, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:26TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 16:15PHIR.J. UmbergerAssists: Matt Read, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 1:45PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 2:36PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareGWGAssists: Chris VandeVelde, Michael Del Zotto · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 7:02PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
- P2 8:37PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.16 xG1–6
- P2 15:01PHIMichael RafflAssists: Scott Laughton, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–7
- P2 15:23TBLBrian BoyleAssists: Cedric Paquette, Anton Stralman · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–7
- P3 1:20TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.08 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:09PHIMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00TBLMatt Carle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:49TBLMatt Carle: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 7:54TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:41PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:03PHIAndrew MacDonald: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:03TBLBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:03PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Kucherov5:53
xG 0.57–0.22 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn3:35
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Connolly – Paquette – Drouin2:18
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette6:33
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Barberio9:18
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Garrison – Barberio3:27
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr6:17
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare9:19
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl13:34
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn11:53
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier11:41
xG 0.40–0.84 (32%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto5:20
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 4–6goals 2–1
- Schultz – Coburn4:58
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto8:46
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).