Mon, Jan 12, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 03 | 08 | 08 | 019 |
| LAK | 17 | 06 | 17 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 19:00LAKMarian GaborikENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.67 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:55TORDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:20LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:20TORDavid Booth: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:26LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:26TORTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:33LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P2 14:19LAKMatt Greene: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:32TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:08LAKJeff Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – van Riemsdyk – Kadri7:17
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Panik8:03
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Santorelli – Komarov3:52
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Winnik3:18
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Gardiner11:23
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Franson14:47
xG 0.53–0.61 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Polak – Rielly13:26
xG 0.45–0.66 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown10:31
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:33
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Carter – Kopitar10:47
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Richards – Lewis – King7:38
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb18:17
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Schultz – Martinez14:16
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Greene – Muzzin9:52
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).