Tue, Jan 13, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 16 | 15 | 319 |
| BOS | 19 | 29 | 116 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 16:42BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Carl Soderberg, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:55TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:24BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Milan Lucic, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 19:06BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 1:30BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Torey Krug, David Krejci · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 14:18TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Alex Killorn, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:42BOSBrad Marchand: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 6:11TBLBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:46BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:39BOSCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:56TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:03BOSZdeno Chara: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:03BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:03BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:03TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:34TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:34TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:34BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58BOSBrad Marchand: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Killorn11:08
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown6:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Paquette – Drouin3:55
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov11:30
xG 0.48–0.93 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Barberio10:20
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Carle – Stralman2:25
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Garrison – Sustr10:32
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith4:47
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Pastrnak6:46
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak5:42
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Smith6:06
xG 0.13–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hamilton11:51
xG 1.02–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–3goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Krug2:59
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug3:34
xG 0.04–0.15 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).