Tue, Jan 13, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 111 | 19 | 232 |
| PIT | 29 | 117 | 411 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16PITMarcel GocAssists: Zach Sill, Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 12:04PITDavid PerronAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 5:12MINJonas BrodinAssists: Nate Prosser, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 6:45PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 5:03PITBrandon SutterAssists: Paul Martin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 9:08PITPaul MartinAssists: Nick Spaling, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.29 xG1–5
- P3 10:56PITKris LetangAssists: David Perron, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 13:57MINJustin FontaineAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 16:39PITDavid PerronAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.16 xG2–7
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:40MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:40MINErik Haula: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:57PITRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Haula – Fontaine11:00
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise14:53
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Cooke – Brodziak – Carter11:47
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Zucker – Coyle – Niederreiter10:29
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Brodin7:33
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Prosser – Folin2:46
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Suter – Prosser2:16
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Perron14:49
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 22–12goals 3–1
- Adams – Goc – Sill3:25
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Spaling – Bennett12:50
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Adams – Goc – Rust2:49
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang2:24
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Despres16:31
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Martin – Bortuzzo11:14
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).