Tue, Jan 13, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vancouver Canucks 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 111 | 011 | 131 |
| NSH | 212 | 09 | 39 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 6:22NSHColin WilsonGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, James Neal · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 2:47VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Chris Tanev, Linden Vey · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 13:32NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Victor Bartley · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 15:31NSHMike FisherAssists: James Neal, Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 17:39NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Craig Smith, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.49 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:30VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 8:16VANChris Higgins: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:32VANShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- P2 12:59NSHJames Neal: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:23VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:14NSHCraig Smith: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:59VANBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:22VANChris Higgins: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata12:42
xG 0.68–0.39 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Vey9:57
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Richardson – Matthias – Kassian8:53
xG 0.31–0.35 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino7:29
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev12:09
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stanton12:38
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Edler – Corrado3:06
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Beck – Bourque9:03
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson6:56
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 6–14goals 2–0
- Cullen – Jokinen – Jarnkrok8:31
xG 0.13–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg12:17
xG 0.32–0.67 (33%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Jones13:19
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Bartley12:20
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 7–21goals 2–0
- Weber – Josi18:17
xG 0.70–0.86 (45%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).