Tue, Jan 13, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 110 | 17 | 227 |
| WPG | 212 | 415 | 28 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Zach Bogosian, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:24WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 3:39WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 5:15FLADave BollandAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Dylan Olsen · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
- P2 6:23WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Andrew Ladd, Jim Slater · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 15:23WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Toby Enstrom, Mark Scheifele · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 16:32WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–6
- P3 4:26WPGJay HarrisonAssists: Mark Stuart, Jim Slater · Slap, 0.03 xG1–7
- P3 5:39FLABrad BoyesAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–7
- P3 13:47WPGEvander KanePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Adam Lowry · Snap, 0.09 xG2–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:26FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:13FLADylan Olsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:36WPGJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:20WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:26FLANick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:50WPGToby Enstrom: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland10:44
xG 0.89–0.45 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall7:45
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–3
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad13:43
xG 0.47–1.23 (28%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Boyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:01
xG 0.14–1.05 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad17:44
xG 1.11–1.04 (52%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
- Olsen – Gudbranson11:54
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Kulikov17:50
xG 0.33–1.66 (17%)attempts 8–26goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Perreault – Scheifele12:28
xG 1.56–0.55 (74%)attempts 17–9goals 4–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:26
xG 1.03–0.09 (92%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Halischuk – Kane – Lowry10:53
xG 0.67–0.88 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso9:40
xG 0.05–0.36 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot17:55
xG 1.38–0.35 (80%)attempts 23–12goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian16:03
xG 1.42–0.52 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 3–0
- Harrison – Stuart12:51
xG 0.57–0.98 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).