Wed, Jan 14, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Montréal Canadiens 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 09 | 310 | 331 |
| CBJ | 16 | 06 | 14 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31CBJKevin ConnautonAssists: Jeremy Morin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 9:38CBJRyan JohansenPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 11:30MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:24MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:23MTLMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:41MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:41CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:40CBJJames Wisniewski: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:38MTLMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:56CBJNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:12CBJJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:41CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P3 9:25MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:51CBJMatt Calvert: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:27CBJJared Boll: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:01CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:26
xG 1.29–0.09 (93%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Bournival – Sekac3:31
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Eller – Weise10:36
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Parenteau – Prust2:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin14:48
xG 1.05–0.25 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu14:48
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:26
xG 0.48–0.71 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen13:49
xG 0.54–0.30 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Collins – Morin – Wennberg7:28
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:12
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard14:49
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Connauton14:43
xG 0.63–0.82 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Goloubef13:24
xG 0.07–0.76 (9%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).