Wed, Jan 14, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New Jersey Devils 5, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 410 | 05 | 520 |
| LAK | 05 | 17 | 214 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:46NJDSteve BernierPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 1:16LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:57NJDSteve BernierPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jon Merrill · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 9:20NJDMartin HavlatAssists: Patrik Elias, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 10:05NJDMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Dainius Zubrus · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 17:05NJDMichael RyderAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–1
- P3 7:16LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Brayden McNabb, Justin Williams · Backhand, 0.45 xG5–2
- P3 19:02LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Mike Richards · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:19LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:19NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:14NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:59NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min
- P1 15:02NJDJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:59LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24NJDTim Sestito: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:32LAKAndy Andreoff: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:29LAKJordan Nolan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Ryder – Cammalleri9:37
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique9:14
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Elias – Havlat – Zajac9:32
xG 0.29–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Sestito – Whitney5:03
xG 0.17–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Harrold7:48
xG 0.69–0.07 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson13:13
xG 0.85–0.58 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Greene – Harrold2:13
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown9:03
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff9:12
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Richards – Lewis – King7:46
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Carter – Kopitar10:26
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Martinez11:16
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty4:50
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
- Greene – Martinez2:42
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).