Thu, Jan 15, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 4, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 210 | 03 | 422 |
| PHI | 09 | 09 | 012 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:35VANNick BoninoGWGAssists: Shawn Matthias, Ryan Stanton · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:21VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 1:21VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 1:43VANJannik HansenAssists: Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.15 xG4–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:41VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:41PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:15VANRadim Vrbata: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:00PHICarlo Colaiacovo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:15VANShawn Matthias: Holding2 min
- P2 1:06PHIZac Rinaldo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:54VANNick Bonino: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 3:02PHIMichael Del Zotto: Elbowing2 min
- P2 3:13VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P2 18:35PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:13PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMatthias – Bonino – Vey10:36
xG 0.89–0.29 (75%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Richardson11:03
xG 0.45–0.09 (84%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Horvat9:46
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:20
xG 0.13–0.67 (17%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:33
xG 0.89–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Stanton13:33
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Sbisa14:03
xG 0.29–0.61 (32%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Read – Couturier10:19
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare6:50
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:04
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Umberger – Simmonds – Schenn10:21
xG 0.27–0.86 (24%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Del Zotto6:44
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Schenn7:44
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Schultz – MacDonald2:21
xG 0.02–0.02 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).