Thu, Jan 15, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 014 | 06 | 126 |
| OTT | 220 | 17 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 14:35MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:26OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Milan Michalek, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 2:16OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:24OTTErik CondraENAssists: Eric Gryba, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:29MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:40MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:16OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:26OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:09MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:04OTTClarke MacArthur: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:49OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:24MTLPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:24MTLTomas Plekanec: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Sekac2:26
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Desharnais – Galchenyuk5:32
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:53
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Desharnais – Eller – Weise3:08
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Beaulieu14:08
xG 0.24–0.25 (48%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Emelin10:30
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Markov – Subban15:30
xG 0.25–0.90 (22%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:43
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Michalek – Stone – Pageau9:29
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Legwand – Condra – Lazar6:42
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Chiasson8:02
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson12:32
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch10:05
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).