Thu, Jan 15, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 18 | 014 | 232 |
| TBL | 05 | 15 | 29 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52EDMBenoit PouliotSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 7:10TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Carle, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:02EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
- P3 1:33TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 11:59TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:04TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:56EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:01TBLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:59TBLMatt Carle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:42TBLAndrej Sustr: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Pouliot – Yakupov10:48
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:04
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser10:10
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:07
xG 0.08–0.43 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry13:08
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Klefbom13:43
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Ference – Schultz4:31
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov12:42
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Paquette9:32
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Stamkos6:35
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Brown3:14
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr11:45
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Garrison – Nesterov8:20
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sustr4:17
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).