Thu, Jan 15, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 02 | 214 | 05 | 13 | 324 |
| STL | 09 | 08 | 27 | 03 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:04DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Drew Miller, Luke Glendening · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 19:04DETTomas TatarAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Riley Sheahan · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–0
- P3 3:58STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:12STLAlexander SteenAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 4:57DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Kyle Quincey, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:46STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:46DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:20STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:25DETStephen Weiss: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:55DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P2 14:35STLBarret Jackman: Holding2 min
- P2 18:18DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P2 18:18STLT.J. Oshie: Embellishment2 min
- P3 0:26STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:03DETHenrik Zetterberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:51STLMaxim Lapierre: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Andersson – Glendening7:49
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader10:15
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Weiss – Helm – Pulkkinen6:53
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan10:05
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Ouellet13:45
xG 1.17–0.32 (78%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser13:11
xG 0.22–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson11:30
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:14
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Lindstrom – Stastny – Berglund9:01
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Lapierre – Reaves5:31
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie9:06
xG 0.09–0.26 (25%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Cole9:22
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson14:38
xG 0.71–0.71 (50%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:41
xG 0.11–0.64 (15%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).