Thu, Jan 15, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 2, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 06 | 15 | 222 |
| DAL | 09 | 022 | 116 | 147 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P3 7:34WPGEvander KaneSHGWGAssists: Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P3 18:44DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Antoine Roussel, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:04WPGAndrew Ladd: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:18WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19WPGToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19DALRyan Garbutt: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:17DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:28DALTyler Seguin: Charging2 min
- P3 0:36WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:24WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:24WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:54WPGMark Stuart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHalischuk – Kane – Lowry6:15
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Frolik – Perreault – Scheifele10:18
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Slater – Peluso5:02
xG 0.06–0.41 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:09
xG 0.42–1.55 (21%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:34
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Bogosian12:33
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Harrison – Stuart8:53
xG 0.18–0.94 (16%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:26
xG 1.61–0.07 (96%)attempts 20–1goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Sceviour5:21
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Roussel – Seguin – Garbutt2:19
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie6:52
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Goligoski3:46
xG 0.66–0.04 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn8:33
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Daley – Oleksiak5:33
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).