Thu, Jan 15, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 04 | 08 | 125 |
| SJS | 212 | 017 | 113 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:55SJSTyler KennedyAssists: Brenden Dillon, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:06SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Matt Nieto, Justin Braun · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 11:57TORRoman PolakAssists: Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:15SJSTommy WingelsENAssists: Tye McGinn, James Sheppard · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:16SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:32SJSBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min
- P1 16:46TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:11TORRoman Polak: Delaying game2 min
- P2 14:14SJSJoe Thornton: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 14:53TORDaniel Winnik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:20
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Frattin – Panik3:33
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Smith – Panik5:09
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Santorelli – Winnik – Kadri11:36
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:23
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Holzer – Gardiner13:24
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Polak15:34
xG 0.52–0.86 (38%)attempts 15–23goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – McGinn – Hertl8:36
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Karlsson12:41
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Nieto11:39
xG 0.57–0.37 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Sheppard – Wingels – Goodrow6:59
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon15:11
xG 0.95–0.52 (65%)attempts 24–12goals 2–1
- Irwin – Tennyson10:37
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic17:31
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 20–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).