Fri, Jan 16, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 19 | 05 | 324 |
| NYI | 111 | 18 | 416 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 12:22PITDavid PerronPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 16:51NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:31NYIRyan StromeAssists: Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:55PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Paul Martin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 6:42NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Josh Bailey, Thomas Hickey · Backhand, 0.37 xG3–3
- P3 11:51NYIKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 17:29NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Brock Nelson, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
- P3 18:47NYIMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:59PITNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:28NYIMichael Grabner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:51NYICal Clutterbuck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:40PITScott Harrington: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43PITChristian Ehrhoff: Holding2 min
- P2 3:43NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:19PITSteve Downie: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Spaling – Bennett10:59
xG 1.20–0.41 (75%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Goc – Downie – Sutter5:35
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Adams – Sill – Arcobello3:20
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Downie – Sutter – Sill2:39
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Despres14:42
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Martin – Letang15:28
xG 1.11–0.98 (53%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Letang2:09
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Lee – Strome10:39
xG 1.33–0.47 (74%)attempts 23–7goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas11:30
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kulemin – Nelson10:40
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares14:24
xG 0.81–1.11 (42%)attempts 16–15goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan18:06
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 24–14goals 2–1
- Strait – Hickey13:19
xG 0.72–0.65 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy18:32
xG 0.61–0.84 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).