Fri, Jan 16, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
New Jersey Devils 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 01 | 09 | 115 |
| ANA | 115 | 212 | 213 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09ANACorey PerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:12NJDMartin HavlatPPAssists: Patrik Elias, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:16ANAHampus LindholmGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:08ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 16:27ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 18:31ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.01 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:02NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:13ANASami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:35ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:47ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:47NJDTim Sestito: Instigator2 min
- P3 5:47NJDTim Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:47NJDTim Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:46NJDJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Havlat – Zajac11:56
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Sestito – Whitney6:02
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Zubrus – Ryder – Cammalleri13:57
xG 0.52–0.80 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique15:26
xG 0.07–0.72 (9%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Greene – Harrold2:28
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Fraser – Harrold11:06
xG 0.14–0.41 (25%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Greene – Larsson15:57
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon14:11
xG 0.89–0.22 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:03
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Smith-Pelly – Rakell6:43
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kesler – Bourque – Palmieri9:33
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler16:21
xG 0.99–0.15 (87%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm17:18
xG 0.75–0.33 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Stoner – Vatanen16:42
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).