Sat, Jan 17, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 4, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 215 | 29 | 431 |
| MTL | 16 | 216 | 313 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 0:10MTLDale WeiseAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 10:52NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:16MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 16:19NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Brock Nelson, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 0:52MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 11:16MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 13:43MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, Dustin Tokarski · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
- P3 14:50NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
- P3 17:26NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:54NYIRyan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:15NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:15MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:32MTLNathan Beaulieu: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:31NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:10NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27MTLManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57NYIFrans Nielsen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:48
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Grabner – Kulemin – Nelson8:10
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome7:43
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares15:06
xG 0.51–1.10 (32%)attempts 20–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy2:19
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:11
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Strait – Hickey13:03
xG 0.61–0.76 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Thomas – Sekac12:29
xG 1.14–0.09 (93%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Weise11:38
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Prust – Bournival7:54
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:23
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Beaulieu17:31
xG 1.27–0.55 (70%)attempts 24–16goals 2–2
- Markov – Subban16:09
xG 0.94–0.56 (63%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Weaver – Emelin9:49
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).