Sat, Jan 17, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 115 | 15 | 02 | 1 | 334 |
| FLA | 015 | 27 | 012 | 03 | 0 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:35EDMJordan EberleAssists: Matt Fraser · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:41FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:29FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 6:32EDMMatt HendricksSHAssists: Boyd Gordon, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Nail Yakupov scored
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 3. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 4. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 5. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
- 6. FLA Jussi Jokinen stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:20FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Elbowing2 min
- P1 9:30FLAJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57FLAJimmy Hayes: Holding2 min
- P2 18:40FLABrian Campbell: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:17EDMTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:31EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:55EDMAnton Lander: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:14
xG 0.74–0.70 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser9:00
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:29
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Roy – Pouliot – Yakupov9:34
xG 0.21–0.73 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Klefbom13:16
xG 0.61–0.62 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Schultz2:38
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Fayne12:09
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Huberdeau – Barkov11:31
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall6:53
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hayes – Bjugstad9:36
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland10:25
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson14:05
xG 1.01–0.25 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Kulikov14:53
xG 1.00–0.81 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad16:16
xG 0.54–0.49 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).