Sat, Jan 17, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 210 | 214 | 432 |
| DAL | 27 | 112 | 27 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 18:18DALErik ColeAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Ales Hemsky · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 4:13DALJason SpezzaAssists: Erik Cole, Jyrki Jokipakka · Slap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 5:30WSHEric FehrAssists: Joel Ward, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 16:06WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Matt Niskanen, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 0:21WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 3:14DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 3:30DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 16:34WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:40WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:13WSHMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:28DALJason Spezza: Interference2 min
- P1 18:47WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:43DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:23WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P2 14:03DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:56WSHJoel Ward: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWard – Laich – Fehr9:32
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:20
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:59
xG 0.20–0.04 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson6:29
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner13:34
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson13:14
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Green – Hillen10:17
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Spezza – Hemsky9:19
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin8:54
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler6:35
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:30
xG 0.28–0.96 (23%)attempts 10–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Oleksiak11:21
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 3–1
- Demers – Benn13:08
xG 0.17–0.47 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg14:26
xG 0.42–1.00 (29%)attempts 11–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).