Sun, Jan 18, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 314 | 06 | 314 | 634 |
| CHI | 220 | 116 | 05 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33DALTyler SeguinAssists: Colton Sceviour, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:49DALCody EakinSHAssists: Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 12:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P1 17:00CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P1 19:11DALVernon FiddlerAssists: John Klingberg, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 7:13CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 2:58DALCody EakinPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 10:59DALErik ColeAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 19:00DALShawn HorcoffENAssists: Alex Goligoski, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.57 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:43CHIBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:17DALRyan Garbutt: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:13DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08CHIPatrick Sharp: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:08DALShawn Horcoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:59DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
- P3 1:22CHIJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Sceviour – Seguin12:06
xG 1.00–0.47 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Moen – Fiddler9:11
xG 0.72–0.40 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt10:32
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Cole – Spezza – Hemsky6:32
xG 0.25–0.79 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg15:02
xG 1.31–0.60 (69%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Demers – Benn18:06
xG 0.68–0.97 (41%)attempts 17–29goals 1–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak9:35
xG 0.36–0.89 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad13:02
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 21–7goals 1–1
- Richards – Bickell – Kane11:34
xG 0.83–0.73 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Sharp – Smith – Teravainen9:01
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Shaw2:48
xG 0.15–0.47 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson15:10
xG 0.83–0.42 (67%)attempts 23–7goals 1–1
- Rozsival – Erixon6:55
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:29
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).