Mon, Jan 19, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New York Islanders 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 27 | 28 | 429 |
| NYI | 29 | 320 | 212 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 8:06NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.41 xG0–2
- P2 4:53NYINikolay KuleminSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 9:07PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 11:49NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Nick Leddy, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P2 15:12PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 19:52NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 0:49PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Zac Rinaldo · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 5:45NYINick LeddyAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG3–6
- P3 17:36PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 18:57NYIAnders LeeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:35PHIJakub Voracek: Boarding2 min
- P1 15:48NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:05NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:17NYICasey Cizikas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:25PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Raffl won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn10:37
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Rinaldo – Raffl8:18
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:43
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier9:16
xG 0.14–0.56 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto3:52
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto5:27
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Schenn2:56
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson7:53
xG 1.08–0.47 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:19
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Tavares12:35
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome9:29
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:09
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Hamonic – de Haan18:53
xG 0.60–0.89 (40%)attempts 17–19goals 0–2
- Strait – Hickey13:43
xG 0.33–1.01 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).