Mon, Jan 19, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 09 | 29 | 323 |
| MIN | 15 | 012 | 09 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: James Wisniewski, Kevin Connauton · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:43MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 5:35CBJJames WisniewskiPPGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 16:57CBJScott HartnellAssists: James Wisniewski · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:22CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37CBJScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:00MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:41CBJDavid Savard: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:25MINErik Haula: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dubinsky – Anderson9:41
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Skille – Letestu – Tropp6:48
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Morin – Johansen11:50
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Calvert – Atkinson – Wennberg11:31
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Connauton15:28
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Prout15:52
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard14:16
xG 0.19–0.35 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise13:29
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Carter – Coyle – Niederreiter7:38
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Niederreiter2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:57
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin18:02
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Dumba7:00
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin9:11
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).