Mon, Jan 19, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 2, Los Angeles Kings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 03 | 06 | 110 | 14 | 223 |
| LAK | 010 | 017 | 16 | 01 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 10:23LAKJarret StollAssists: Matt Greene, Dustin Brown · Deflected, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 13:55CGYSean MonahanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 4:08CGYDennis WidemanGWGAssists: Kris Russell, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:23CGYMason Raymond: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:59CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:59LAKJeff Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:04LAKMarian Gaborik: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:53LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:53LAKDrew Doughty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:58CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58LAKJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:48CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:06CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:24CGYJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:56LAKNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:41LAKJarret Stoll: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:45LAKRobyn Regehr: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Bouma – Monahan7:29
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Gaudreau7:03
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Byron – Bollig4:51
xG 0.02–0.28 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Raymond – Colborne – Granlund7:11
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Brodie14:48
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell13:15
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Engelland – Smid9:49
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – King – Shore7:40
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stoll – Brown – Lewis6:48
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Richards – Clifford – Nolan7:30
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar8:02
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb3:25
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Greene – McNabb7:49
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty2:17
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).