Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 214 | 013 | 01 | 235 |
| NYR | 09 | 117 | 18 | 11 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:29NYRKevin HayesAssists: Dan Girardi, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 13:38OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 14:41OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 2:42NYRChris KreiderAssists: Marc Staal, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- OT 2:55NYRCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:30NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 18:33OTTMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:32NYRLee Stempniak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:32OTTDavid Legwand: Holding2 min
- P2 18:18OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone13:10
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Legwand – Neil – Condra6:17
xG 0.16–0.24 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau11:37
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad13:43
xG 0.43–1.45 (23%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Karlsson2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci2:00
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson16:16
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:48
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello13:14
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Hagelin – Miller4:09
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Stempniak – Miller6:56
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh17:17
xG 1.43–0.50 (74%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Boyle – Staal12:23
xG 1.11–0.35 (76%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Boyle – Hunwick5:51
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).