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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PIT017191900235
PHI1301411716340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:11PHILuke SchennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:59PITChris KunitzSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:01PITBeau BennettAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:02PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. OT 3:57PHIClaude GirouxPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–3
Penalties (25)
  1. P1 5:34PHIZac Rinaldo: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 15:36PHIZac Rinaldo: Boarding5 min
  3. P1 15:36PHIZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
  4. P2 1:55PITCraig Adams: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 1:55PITZach Sill: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 1:55PHIMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 5:27PHIRay Emery: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 8:01PITRob Scuderi: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 8:01PHIJakub Voracek: Instigator2 min
  10. P2 8:01PHIJakub Voracek: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 8:01PHIJakub Voracek: Misconduct10 min
  12. P2 9:48PITSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
  13. P2 9:48PITSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P2 9:48PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 9:48PHILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
  16. P2 11:36PHIMichael Del Zotto: Charging2 min
  17. P2 16:49PITBobby Farnham: Fighting5 min
  18. P2 16:49PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
  19. P2 16:49PITMark Arcobello: Roughing2 min
  20. P2 16:49PHIChris VandeVelde: Cross checking2 min
  21. P3 8:52PITRobert Bortuzzo: Tripping2 min
  22. P3 12:02PHIMichael Del Zotto: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  23. P3 14:56PHIBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
  24. P3 0:00PITZach Sill: Cross checking2 min
  25. OT 2:04PITDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
46% to win54% to win
← PIT attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITPHI
35Shots on goal40
3.4Expected goals3.6
60Shot attempts62
31Faceoffs won32
6Power plays6
34Penalty minutes59
31Hits40
16Blocked shots10
7Giveaways2
5Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestMalkin – Spaling – Bennett4:44

    xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1

  2. Adams – Sill – Farnham4:17

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Downie – Sutter – Arcobello5:48

    xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Kunitz – Crosby – Perron9:39

    xG 0.28–0.77 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMartin – Bortuzzo3:19

    xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  2. Scuderi – Martin3:23

    xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  3. Scuderi – Bortuzzo6:33

    xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestRead – Couturier – Raffl3:03

    xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  2. Simmonds – Rinaldo – Raffl3:13

    xG 0.03–0.02 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0

  3. Giroux – Voracek – Schenn6:51

    xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0

  4. Umberger – Read – Couturier3:36

    xG 0.04–0.10 (27%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStreit – MacDonald9:13

    xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0

  2. Colaiacovo – Manning10:02

    xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0

  3. Streit – Del Zotto2:45

    xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.6 xGPIT 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #270 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.00 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).