Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 5, Washington Capitals 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 16 | 19 | 214 | 02 | 2 | 531 |
| WSH | 38 | 010 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Mike Green · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:58WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 14:51EDMDerek RoyAssists: Nail Yakupov, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 17:34WSHJay BeagleAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 19:56EDMNikita NikitinPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 6:38WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 15:49EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Anton Lander, Matt Fraser · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. EDM Nail Yakupov stopped
- 3. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 4. EDM Jordan Eberle stopped
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 6. EDM Derek Roy scored
- 7. WSH Eric Fehr stopped
- 8. EDM Teddy Purcell scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:16WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
- P1 13:11EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:51EDMMark Fayne: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 15:11WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:53WSHMatt Niskanen: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:13WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min
- P3 11:23WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Purcell – Lander – Fraser8:15
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:14
xG 0.19–0.36 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Roy – Pouliot – Yakupov10:52
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer8:10
xG 0.07–0.40 (15%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Nikitin – Schultz2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Fayne10:01
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Klefbom12:49
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson9:58
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Brouwer – Backstrom2:02
xG 0.24–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:08
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ward – Laich – Fehr10:13
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson14:27
xG 0.72–0.10 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Green – Hillen12:24
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:40
xG 0.62–0.61 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).