Tue, Jan 20, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 014 | 114 | 08 | 01 | 137 |
| MTL | 04 | 09 | 112 | 12 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:10NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Seth Jones, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 2:02MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: P.K. Subban, David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 4:08MTLP.K. SubbanPPGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:33MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:26NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min
- P3 7:17MTLLars Eller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:17NSHMike Ribeiro: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:34NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Forsberg11:02
xG 0.84–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bourque – Jarnkrok9:57
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson12:09
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Gaustad – Nystrom10:14
xG 0.06–0.67 (8%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones13:59
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Ekholm11:50
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi20:18
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 26–20goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Prust – Eller – Sekac2:55
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:43
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Prust – Bournival5:45
xG 0.02–0.07 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Thomas – Sekac7:33
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Emelin12:57
xG 0.21–0.05 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban19:47
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Beaulieu16:06
xG 0.46–1.30 (26%)attempts 12–29goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).