Tue, Jan 20, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 213 | 17 | 327 |
| DAL | 010 | 111 | 016 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:46DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Jason Spezza, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:17BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Carl Soderberg, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:27BOSGregory CampbellGWGAssists: Craig Cunningham, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 7:41BOSDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:09BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:58DALJordie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:11DALJason Spezza: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:38BOSJordan Caron: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26DALTravis Moen: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 17:00BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:25BOSDougie Hamilton: Clipping2 min
- P3 7:04DALJason Demers: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:52BOSMilan Lucic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Lucic – Cunningham2:05
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Paille – Bergeron – Smith7:53
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Pastrnak7:59
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg10:37
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug2:26
xG 0.46–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug8:10
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Chara – Miller2:59
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Spezza – Fiddler2:22
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Benn – Sceviour – Seguin10:44
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt3:02
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt4:46
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg11:29
xG 0.77–0.34 (69%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Demers – Benn11:16
xG 0.66–0.69 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak11:31
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).