Wed, Jan 21, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 3, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 213 | 110 | 333 |
| ANA | 38 | 18 | 211 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 14:59ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:04ANABen LovejoyAssists: Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 9:37ANATim JackmanGWGAssists: Rene Bourque, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 11:13CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 19:12CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 9:44ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Colby Robak · Snap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 10:42CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Lance Bouma, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:41ANARyan KeslerENAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:58ANAAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:54ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:38ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:47CGYDavid Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:01CGYMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Colborne – Bouma7:24
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Colborne3:59
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Jones – Raymond – Jooris2:59
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Jones – Bouma – Monahan4:27
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell15:05
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
- Engelland – Diaz10:12
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie16:09
xG 0.38–0.79 (32%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon12:09
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell10:27
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Bourque8:40
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Kesler – Beleskey – Palmieri7:35
xG 0.42–1.06 (29%)attempts 8–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRobak – Vatanen11:46
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler15:01
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm18:52
xG 0.56–1.40 (29%)attempts 16–26goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).