Tue, Jan 27, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 018 | 113 | 141 |
| NYI | 117 | 111 | 210 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:05NYIMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Josh Bailey, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:11NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 6:12NYIRyan StromeAssists: Frans Nielsen, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 16:47NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Travis Hamonic, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 19:50NYRCarl HagelinPPAssists: Jesper Fast, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P2 0:59NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:53NYINikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:13NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P3 15:35NYRTanner Glass: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:16NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:55NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:55NYRTanner Glass: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:55NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Stepan – Kreider10:44
xG 1.15–1.08 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Moore – Hagelin – Fast4:09
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Glass – Miller5:21
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:13
xG 0.87–1.07 (45%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Hunwick5:31
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Klein – McDonagh3:17
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal9:48
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Kulemin – Nelson10:04
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Lee – Strome8:02
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:33
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Grabovski – Bailey – Tavares12:38
xG 0.60–0.99 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hickey13:32
xG 1.26–0.75 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:40
xG 0.90–0.93 (49%)attempts 15–23goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:27
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).